India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in the current financial year that ends Friday may touch ₹18 lakh crore, a record since the launch of the new indirect tax regime six years ago, indicating the resilience of the country’s economy amid global headwinds, two officials aware of the development said.
GST collections in the first 11 months of FY23 have already touched ₹16.46 lakh crore, a robust 22.7% year-on-year growth, according to data from the finance ministry. It is expected that the growth trend will be maintained even in the last month and at least ₹1.50 lakh crore revenue is expected in March, the officials added, on condition of anonymity.
“According to a conservative estimate, even if the average ₹1.49 lakh crore monthly GST collection (thus far in 2022-23) is maintained in the month of March, the total GST revenue for 2022-23 would be ₹17.88 lakh crore, which is quote close to ₹18 lakh crore mark. We expect to do better as collection data is still coming in,” one of them said.
The uptrend in GST collections both for the Centre and states was anticipated in advance. Hence, the Union government raised GST revenue numbers in the revised estimates (RE) for 2022-23, a second official said.
The Union government’s budget estimate (BE) for (central) GST collections in 2022-23 was ₹7.80 lakh crore, but later, towards the end of the financial year (on February 1, 2023) the number was raised to ₹8.54 lakh crore in the revised estimates (RE) of FY23.
The GST revenue in February 2023 recorded a 12% year-on-year jump to a little over ₹1.49 lakh crore, the fourth highest ever. According to experts, the ₹1,49,577 crore revenue as against ₹1,33,026 crore last February underscored the robustness of the Indian economy despite strong global headwinds due to the Ukraine war and demand contractions in major economies. The monthly GST revenue collection, a weathervane of economic health, has been buoyant in recent months the record ₹1.67 lakh crore collection came in April 2022 but GDP numbers released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) recently showed that the Indian economy grew at a lower-than-expected 4.4% in the third quarter (October-December 2022) of the current financial year because of a contraction in manufacturing and slowing consumption.