Even as the monthly GST collection hit a record high in April giving a boost to the Narendra Modi government, it might not be a cause of celebration yet, with the impending refunds set to bring the collection back down to normal levels. Further, going ahead, the GST collection may fall short of the required run rate of Rs 1.15 lakh crore to meet the FY20 estimated target of Rs 13.7 lakh crore, a research report said.
The GST refunds, yet to be processed, may bring the April collection figure to Rs 1.04 lakh crore, down from Rs 1.13 lakh crore collection reported by the government yesterday, Kotak Research said in the report. The pressure on the fiscal health of the government may continue if GST mop-up in the next few months doesn’t match the targeted figure, it added.
The rise in collections may be positive for the government, but it’s likely on account of year-end adjustments in FY19, the report said. The tax liability-computation of the annual return filing for the FY18, whose due date is June 30, and data-analytics based action against tax evaders may have helped in the increase, experts said.